Operating profit of at least DKK 9.3bn following Russian stock building in Q4 2009
In November this year the Russian State Duma decided to increase the Russian beer excise duty by 200% from 1 January 2010. During the last months of 2009 this has led to stock building in the distribution system and consequently Carlsberg's Russian Q4 2009 volumes will be higher than previously expected.
Carlsberg estimates that the stock building will affect operating profit positively by approximately DKK 300m and consequently, Carlsberg upgrades its operating profit outlook for the year to 'at least DKK 9.3bn' compared to previous expectations of 'at least DKK 9.0bn'.
The stock building is estimated to have a negative impact on working capital of around DKK 300m due to higher accounts receivables but in spite of this Carlsberg maintains free cash flow outlook of 'at least DKK 6.5bn'. The continued focus throughout the Group on improving cash flow is expected to off-set the negative working capital impact from the Russian stock building.
While the stock building has a positive one-off impact on profits in Q4 2009, the subsequent de-stocking in Q1 2010 will have a similarly negative one-off impact on operating profit. Likewise, the negative working capital effect in Q4 2009 will be reversed in Q1 2010.
The process of finding partners to development of the Valby site continues
The process of finding one or more partners to the development of the Valby site has not been finalised and Carlsberg does not expect a final solution to be reached in 2009. The process is still on-going and Carlsberg will inform the market when a decision has been reached.
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